3 survey charts that tell VP Binay his 2016 presidential ambition may be over
these charts have been published before and their analysis have been made, posted here : http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/.
but we like to post them again here to give them some focus and highlight their meaning. the meaning? it is bleak for VP Binay. the meaning from these 3 charts is simple : VP Binay’s 2016 presidential ambition may be over.
VP Jejo Binay’s presidentiables survey results :
- there is bad news all over the chart – all his ratings in September versus previous survey in June are down – across the board and dramatic drops, statistically significant, in most cases double digit numbers
- drops like those are very serious – supporters from all segments and locations are dropping binay, hordes of them
- those results are on themselves pretty bad, but that is not worst of it
- much bigger problems are the ones encircled – the ABC and D socio-ecco classes ratings comparing them to march 2014. the drops here are a nightmare.
- among the ABC socio-eco class, more than half, yes more than half fell off from march : to 23% in september from 47%, a whopping 24% points dramatic decline or a 51% shrinkage. imagine, the upper class or thinking class, more than half of them dropped binay. those are worrying numbers!
- next is the D socio-eco class – a drop to 32% from 42% in march or another dramatic decline of -10% points, or 24% of them abandoned Binay.
- take those 2 declines and your conclusion is that the political base of binay has shrunk considerably.
- more bad news – this survey was the first survey conducted while the corruption charges were being made and not only that they were made at just the start of the hearings in the senate. many more corruption charges have been uncovered, talked about and in the headlines since the early days. now think what the survey numbers will be when they conduct the next survey. another double digit decline maybe? and that could be saying it nicely
one of the spins binay’s spokespersons said on these numbers were that his ratings are still the highest among the presidentiables. yes, that is true but that is being selective and shows a clear ignorance on election polls.
yes, binay’s ratings are the highest but they are declining. and the declines are dramatic. in polls like these where several are taken on regular time intervals across a period of time until election time, what is more important is the trend and much less the numbers per se, time sensitive polls like this may show you to be up now but over the next survey points, the numbers will change and if your numbers are on a declining trend, then you have a problem because by the time you reach election time, you might no longer have the numbers to win the election.
the scariest question that binay needs to answer is this – is the latest surveys the beginning of a declining trend for binay?
there are 6 quarters to go until election time and therefore 6 more polling data. his ratings may be 31% now and the highest among the presidentiables, if it is on a declining trend, that will not remain as 31% after 6 quarters. all it takes is that his ratings drop by an average of 5% points per quarter and by election time, all that he will have will be 1%. having a 1% rating by election time will NOT make you win the election.
the first chart shown here is just about binay himself. but an election is not just about one person. an election is one where there are opposing candidates. among his opposing candidates, mar roxas, an aquino ally is considered a good if not strong contender and opponent of binay, the above are mar roxas’ charts and it should scare the hell out of binay.
- preference for roxas as president are all dramatically up – across the board in all areas and all socio-eco classes.
- not only are the increases statistically significant, many of them are like double to triple the numbers in september versus june and march.
- the dramatic increases are also shown in the rankings of the presidentiables – mar roxas jumped from 5th place in june to now 2nd place in september
- that means roxas is gaining at the expense of binay – binay’s supporters are choosing roxas
- add to that the fact that the campaign period has not begun and roxas is essentially just staying in the sidelines. sure, roxas is often seen all over the country doing his job as DILG but he is not openly campaigning.
- in other words, roxas is gaining supporters for doing nothing, just on the blunders that binay is committing one after the other. roxas stands to gain much more once the campaign period starts as he can now actively get supporters to his camp. when roxas starts doing that, binay’s supporter base may shrink even more.
caveat : with the election stll 6 quarters away, these numbers will of course change. and importantly anything can happen from now till the 2016 election – the candidates themselves may change, their strategies and national events may occur that will change the minds of voters. but what we are saying here is that if everything else is equal and binay does not change his strategies and tactics – he can kiss his presidential ambitions good bye.
the numbers do not lie, they are all there. binay would have wished he had not lied himself…