what not to do in a PR campaign for a presidential candidate – the VP Binay case study

we did not invent this, we just monitored what the VP Binay presidential campaign has been doing over the recent months and we think this is a good description of the PR campaign that the VP has been running for the 2016 election.

 

for VP Binay, it has been a string of PR event disasters one after the other. he seem to be walking into one PR blunder to another. that does not make it a PR campaign but surely there is someone or some people in Team Binay who is running this whole PR effort for him. PR in a presidential election campaign is very critical specially at the start of the campaign and this early, many months away from the actual election.

blame it perhaps on the fact that VP Binay announced his candidacy for the presidency too early that PR has become the center piece of the campaign. it is not yet the campaign period and when that time comes, what will become center piece will be the advertising campaign first, the PR campaign second and the election events third in that order of importance and impact. since it is many months before the campaign period, it is only PR that Binay has to work with.

because they are a string of blunders, they  obviously cannot be pre-planned or coming from a strategy or PR program. it surprises us that even after the mistakes have been made, no change seemed to have been applied to be more careful and to avoid making more mistakes. one would think that after the first PR blunder, someone in the Binay campaign team or its PR or Ad agency will take over and stop the bleeding,

the PR events and efforts they have been doing seem to be nothing but crisis management efforts or damage control efforts. we do not know what is causing that. you hire a PR Agency or PR operative to make things work for the candidate or the client, to get media coverage and to build an image. so far none of the image building have been done, just damage control efforts. this may be happening because VP Binay has a really lousy PR Agency or PR operator or the product itself, VP Binay is so infirm that it makes mistakes on its own making.

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more on this next….

 

3 survey charts that tell VP Binay his 2016 presidential ambition may be over

these charts have been published before and their analysis have been made, posted here : http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/.

but we like to post them again here to give them some focus and highlight their meaning. the meaning? it is bleak for VP Binay. the meaning from these 3 charts is simple : VP Binay’s 2016 presidential ambition may be over.

 

VP Jejo Binay’s presidentiables survey results :

• there is bad news all over the chart – all his ratings in September versus previous survey in June are down –  across the board and dramatic drops, statistically significant, in most cases double digit numbers
• drops like those are very serious – supporters from all segments and locations are dropping  binay, hordes of them
• those results are on themselves pretty bad, but that is not worst of it
• much bigger problems are the ones encircled – the ABC and D socio-ecco classes ratings comparing them to march 2014. the drops here are a nightmare.
• among the ABC socio-eco class, more than half, yes more than half fell off from march : to 23% in september from 47%, a whopping 24% points dramatic decline or a 51% shrinkage. imagine, the upper class or thinking class, more than half of them dropped binay. those are worrying numbers!
• next is the D socio-eco class – a drop to 32% from 42% in march or another dramatic decline of -10% points, or 24% of them abandoned Binay.
• take those 2 declines and your conclusion is that the political base of binay has shrunk considerably.
• more bad news – this survey was the first survey conducted while the corruption charges were being made and not only that they were made at just the start of the hearings in the senate. many more corruption charges have been uncovered, talked about and in the headlines since the early days. now think what the survey numbers will be when they conduct the next survey. another double digit decline maybe? and that could be saying it nicely

one of the spins binay’s spokespersons said on these numbers were that his ratings are still the highest among the presidentiables. yes, that is true but that is being selective and shows a clear ignorance on election polls.

yes, binay’s ratings are the highest but they are declining. and the declines are dramatic. in polls like these where several are taken on regular time intervals across a period of time until election time, what is more important is the trend and much less the numbers per se, time sensitive polls like this may show you to be up now but over the next survey points, the numbers will change and if your numbers are on a declining trend, then you have a problem because by the time you reach election time, you might no longer have the numbers to win the election.

the scariest question that binay needs to answer is this – is the latest surveys the beginning of a declining trend for binay?

there are 6 quarters to go until election time and therefore 6 more polling data. his ratings may be 31% now and the highest among the presidentiables, if it is on a declining trend, that will not remain as 31% after 6 quarters. all it takes is that his ratings drop by an average of 5% points per quarter and by election time, all that he will have will be 1%. having a 1% rating by election time will NOT make you win the election.

the first chart shown here is just about binay himself. but an election is not just about one person. an election is one where there are opposing candidates. among his opposing candidates, mar roxas, an aquino ally is considered a good if not strong contender and opponent of binay, the above are mar roxas’ charts and it should scare the hell out of binay.

• preference for roxas as president are all dramatically up – across the board in all areas and all socio-eco classes.
• not only are the increases statistically significant, many of them are like double to triple the numbers in september versus june and march.
• the dramatic increases are also shown in the rankings of the presidentiables – mar roxas jumped from 5th place in june to now 2nd place in september
• that means roxas is gaining at the expense of binay – binay’s supporters are choosing roxas
• add to that the fact that the campaign period has not begun and roxas is essentially just staying in the sidelines. sure, roxas is often seen all over the country doing his job as DILG but he is not openly campaigning.
• in other words, roxas is gaining supporters for doing nothing, just on the blunders that binay is committing one after the other. roxas stands to gain much more once the campaign period starts as he can now actively get supporters to his camp. when roxas starts doing that, binay’s supporter base may shrink even more.

caveat : with the election stll 6 quarters away, these numbers will of course change. and importantly anything can happen from now till the 2016 election – the candidates themselves may change, their strategies and national events may occur that will change the minds of voters. but what we are saying here is that if everything else is equal and binay does not change his strategies and tactics – he can kiss his presidential ambitions good bye.

the numbers do not lie, they are all there. binay would have wished he had not lied himself…

should kris aquino make good her promise to leave the country now that noynoy will be president?

yes, kris aquino did say she will leave the country should her brother noynoy aquino win the presidential election. she made this promise when a controversy with another actress, ruffa gutierrez erupted on her tv show “The Buzz”.

video where kris said she will leave the country if noynoy is elected:

that controversy started when on camera and live tv, kris ribbed ruffa about leaving abs-cbn for another tv station. we do not think kris meant to hurt ruffa, it was a joke lined with sarcasm in a nice way.

but the whole thing exploded into atomic proportions when ruffa’s mother, anabelle rama forced herself into the picture saying the things she usually say on matters like this and as always making thing even worse than it started. actually, we think anything that  involves  the gutierrez family, specially with rama should not be taken seriously by the country.

but this is one is upon us now, noynoy is set to be president of the country and we need to look back at what kris said.

kris should not leave the country –  her statement was made more as flighty statement without any serious intent in it. these are the things we hear from kris every 17 minutes. kris has her job in the country ans she is one of the more bankable tv personalities that we have. it’s okay for kris to stay here.

kris should leave the country – noynoy won the presidency on the basis of honesty and integrity. with that, kris should make good her promise and leave the country to set an example to the whole nation and to be in keeping with the ideals by which her brother was elected president.

tell us what you think post your comments and vote.

also vote in this poll: is kris, president noynoy’s sister a liability or an asset?

read other posts:

• is kris aquino a liability or an asset to the noynoy aquino campaign? <— look at the poll results here
• gary olivar, malacanang spokesperson 5 thumbs down on kris aquino’s tears, will hurt teodoro
• the kris aquino drama – to leave The Buzz TV show?
• should noynoy aquino be happy or sad that he has kris aquino as a sister?
• for the sake of the philippines – ban annabelle rama from tv and the country!

manny villar jumps to 2nd in presidentiables poll who must not win in the 2010 presidential election

choose 2 presidentiables who you think MUST NOT WIN the 2010 election

april 2, 2010; 9am – manny villar jumps to 2nd at 18% as the presidentiable who must  NOT win in the 2010 election. estrada retains lead at 24%. close to villar at 3rd is noynoy aquino at 16%. these top 3 are the leading presidentiables in this election.

december 2, 2009 – we are opening a fresh poll of presidentiables you think MUST NOT WIN  the 2010 presidential election. only official candidates are included here. you can select 2 presidentiables. you can only vote once.

to vote for the presidentiable you want to win, to vote click here –>  New 2010 Presidentiables Poll Opens, includes only the official candidates

to vote for the vice-presidentiable you want to win, to vote click here –> New 2010 Vice-Presidentibles Poll Opens – official candidates only

COMELEC’s precint finder is down, call hotline numbers instead

Those who want to find their precincts may call the information technology (IT) department of the Comelec.

The hotlines are:

•  527-0841

•  527-2773

• 527-2772

• 527-0822

• 526-7769

• 526-7770

 

read more about this here: COMELEC website is down, precinct finder overwhelmed by hits, telephone numbers given

online exit poll now open – tell us who you voted for president and vice-president

click here to cast your vote on the 2010 exit poll. tell us who you voted for president and vice-president. then find out who among the candidates are leading in todays election —> http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/

complete list of 2010 presidentiables platforms of government – read here

read the platforms of government of the presidentiables here: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/platform-of-government/ 

or read here: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/presidentiables-stand-on-issues/

or read specifics here:

• erap estrada – the president who will finish plans for the poor
• jamby madrigal – corruption fighter
• presidentiables stand on how they will generate jobs
• eddie villanueva – a vote for what is right and good governance
• richard gordon the transformer
• richard gordon’s new platform of government for the win in the 2010 election!
• presidentiables stand on improving philippine education
• presidentiables stand on cha-cha and arroyo as speaker
• on nuclear energy : aquino, de los reyes, madrigal & perlas no to nukes; gordon, teodoro, villanueva and villar yes to nukes
• nicanor perlas’s platform of government
• richard gordon’s vision for a new philippines
• presidentiables stand on population growth
• eddie villanueva’s platform of government
• A SOCIAL CONTRACT WITH THE FILIPINO PEOPLE : THE PLATFORM OF SENATOR BENIGNO “NOYNOY” S. AQUINO III

find out if you are a registered voter and your precint number

try this out,  confirm if you are a registered voter and find your precint number, click here: http://www.comelec.gov.ph/precinctfinder/precinctfinder.aspx

The 2010 Presidentiables Blog quotes at Entrepreneur Philippines Magazine

quotations from The 2010 Presidentiables Blog are featured at the april 2010 of the Entrepreneur Philippines Magazine. check out the article entitled “Meet The Candidates” by jimbo owen b. gulle on pages 62 to 68.

the article picks out quotes on our views on the tv advertising aired by the presidentiables. next at The 2010 Presidentiables are our add ons to the quotes used in the magazine.

click to view The 2010 Presidentiales Blog here : http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/

the winning formula for gilbert teodoro

we think teodoro suffering in the polls is the result of arroyo’s kiss of death on teodoro.  the kiss stuck on teodoro and so did his ratings in the polls. with just a few days to go till election, it is all lost  for teodoro.

the latest SWS poll on the performance rating of gloria macapagal arroyo is not helping teodoro at all. arroyo reached a new all time low in performance rating.

with arroyo on his side as his supporter, who needs to have opponents? read more about it here: gloria macapagal arroyo is gilbert teodoro’s deadliest opponent

who is afraid of presidential election polls and surveys?

2010 election poll and surveys is the thing now these days. it’s the stuff of newspaper headlines and tv newscasts. we don’t  know if it is the thing in the minds of voters but it is for sure in media.

there is a marketing and research term used in analyzing research results – polarizing. and that ironically is also a good word to describe how people react to poll results. it is polarizing – some people like it and some people don’t.

for sure even the candidates feel the same way, candidates who suffer in the polls don’t like them while those leading in the polls talk about them and thank the people. those who suffer in them hurl stones on the research agencies who do them.

we like presidentiable polls.  we are a firm believer in research, consumer research in particular. throughout our marketing and advertising work, we have seen the magic of consumer research where the discovery of an insight has propelled brands into marketing and advertising success. we think it is the same in political polls like the ones SWS and Pulse Asia do for the presidentiables.

read about it presidentiables polls here.  read the results and analysis of what the numbers mean, click –>  surveys & polls

reasons why noynoy aquino will lose this election

we also think aquino will lose this election by default – he has not done enough and he did not do anything at the time he was supposed to. we wonder if it is over confidence. we think it is really more of a strategic blunder.

can aquino recover and change the outcome to a win in this election? yes he can. but he needs  to do a lot more than what he has been doing and he needs to get his campaign strategies right.  the first one is easy but we think the second one is not. specially for the aquino campaign. we think poor and weak strategic thinking is the aquino campaign’s greatest weakness. unfortunately, we do not think they know that.

read here on why noynoy aquino will lose this election: why aquino will lose the election

presidentiables stand on issues – read here

read the presidentiables stand on national issues. click here : presidentiables stand on issues

• presidentiables stand on cha-cha and arroyo as speaker
• presidentiables stand on population growth

should noynoy aquino be happy or sad that he has kris aquino as a sister?

there was some big drama at The Buzz last sunday when kris aquino shed monster tears in live tv talking about the tears of being the sister of noynoy aquino the presidentiable.

click here to view all the videos, we have also set up a poll, above in this link. find out the latest result and cast your own vote –> http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/kris-aquino/

noynoy aquino will lose election due to advertising campaign blunders

getting a presidentiable to win an election is really no different from getting a  mass consumer product to succeed  in the market place. the  success of a presidentiable is  measured by the number of votes he/she gets, mass consumer products are measured by market share.  how to get there, political campaigns and brand management teams for mass consumer products use the same principles, apply the same strategies, in many cases execute the same tools and analyze very similar data and research.

the election just like mass consumer marketing is all about two major components – the product and it’s advertising.  in the case of political campaigns, the product is the presidentiable while it may be a shampoo or laundry product for a mass consumer product.

advertising is probably the most potent marketing tool for both. we have seen great tv ads for mass consumer products that were able to push the brands to market leadership. same way we have seen great tv ads launched by the presidentiables that pushed them to being at the top of the polls. this is clearly seen in the manny villar campaign where it is very clear that great advertising done since many months ago has pushed his poll  ratings from nothing to now a statistical tie with the dominant front runner, noynoy aquino.

market research, specifically consumer research is very important to both political campaigns and mass consumer marketing. mass consumer marketing and political campaigns both seek to persuade the target market, voters for presidentiables and consumers for marketers to buy their “products”. understanding the consumers minds, attitudes and sentiments is most key for both.

polls that SWS and Pulse Asia conduct are very similar to what mass consumer marketers use – they also have market share data, the equivalent of polls.   polls is very much like the product tracking research done by mass consumer products.

the aquino campaign we think have committed major blunders in its advertising campaign. they are so major that we think it will cost noynoy aquino to lose this election.  are they reversible? yes, they are reversible but that very much depends on the aquino advertising team knowing what went wrong and more importantly what to do about it. and equally important, do they have the smarts and the energy to something about it.

read the rest here: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2010/02/16/advsertising-blunders-the-aquino-campaign-made-that-will-cost-the-election/

poll that readers will not vote, do not want to win the 2010 election – closed

we are closing this poll for now and will re-open on december 1 when the official list of presidentiables are available.

name 3 presidentiables who MUST NOT WIN the 2010 presidential election

we have either made up our minds or we are in the process of deciding which presidentiable we will vote in the 2010 elections.

on the other side of our brain, though, is a list of presidentiables who we know we will not vote, no matter what happens. in fact we have a list of presidentiables that we are convinced MUST NOT WIN the 2010 election. these are presidentiables that give us nightmares every time we think of the possibility they will win in the 2010 election. some describe the feeling that if a certain presidentiable wins, it will be time to move to a foreign country to migrate.

let us know who these presidentiables are who you think MUST NOT WIN THE 2010  ELECTION. you are allowed to vote 3 presidentiables. the program will not allow you to cast your votes more than once.

 please make a comment – let us know the reason behind your vote.

select 3 presidentiables
you WILL NOT  vote and MUST NOT WIN
the presidential election:

vote in Presidentiable Poll here: aquino moves up in 2010 Presidentiables Poll
 
vote in the Vice-Presidentiable Poll here: mar roxas takes commanding lead at 43% in 2010 Vice-Presidentiable Poll

november 7, 2009; 9pm
estrada continue to be  the top presidentiable who will not be voted and respondents do not want to win the 2010 election in this poll, at  23%.  aquino is gaining at 2nd with a close 21%. velarde jumped to 3rd at 16% behind a recent surge.  

november 3, 2009, 10pm
erap estrada leads all presidentiables readers will not vote and do not win the 2010 election with 25%. noynoy aquino follows at 2nd with 20%. mike velarde is 3rd at 13%, then jamby madrigal at 4th with 12%.

view videos of all presidentiables during GMA7’s Isang Tanong Presidential Forum

view all the videos of the presidentiables here. http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/gma7-isang-tanong/

Pulse Asia October 2009 presidentiables poll – aquino is dominant leader

read post and analysis here: Pulse Asia October 2009 Presidentiable survey – noynoy aquino is dominant front runner

watch out for presidentiable tv ads during pacquiao-cotto fight

aside from the actual fight, the things to watch out for in tomorrow’s fight are the tv ads of the presidentiables and other political candidates. for sure the politicians will be airing their ads heavily if not air new tv ads. i would be very surprised if the presidentiables do not launch new tv ads during the fight.

the pacquiao-cotto fight is probably the closest the country comes to The Super Bowl in the US where practically all homes in the US tune in on the Super Bowl with many having parties and the US ad industry going crazy in airing their best and brightest. the Super Bowl brings in the audience, the ratings are always sky-high which allows the Super Bowl to price their tv spot at an amazing $3 Million per 30 second spot.

(read more on Super Bowl Ads here: http://the-wawam-file.blogspot.com/search/label/super%20bowl).

at that extremely high cost, the US ad industry kills itself in coming up with their best ads. ads aired in the Super Bowl has become an event in itself where the audience have come to expect and anticipate great ads. talks the day after at water coolers among the audience are not only on the game itself but also the ads they saw in the super bowl.

(view ads aired in the Super Bowl here: http://the-wawam-file.blogspot.com/search/label/super%20bowl%20ads)

careers and marketing success are made at the super bowl for ad people and ad agencies. apple was one and coca cola is another.

it will not be exactly what will happen in the pacquiao-cotto fight but we can expect presidentiables to air new ads tomorrow. the fight will most likely get the highest rating this year and the history of advertising in the country. while 30 second ad costs are expected to be extremely high, we think, just like at the super bowl, it is very much worth it.

gilbert teodoro did it during the pacquiao-hatton fight where he aired his disaster preparedness tv ad and introduced himself for the first time to the voters. (read here: gilbert who? introduces himself in tv ad) teodoro’s ad was aired in every commercial break in that fight.

let us just hope that the quality of the ads the politicians will air tomorrow will be as good as the ones aired in the super bowl.

here is a thought:

loren legarda said she will announce her plans for 2010 on november 15. hmm…… we wonder if legarda will do it via a new tv ad to be aired tomorrow during the fight?

(read here: drama queen senator loren legarda to announce 2010 plans within the week! oh, oh – here we go again!)

edu manzano is gilbert teodoro’s VP, mar roxas takes commanding lead in 2010 Vice Presidentiables Poll

click here to vote in the vice-presidentiables poll –>  mar roxas takes commanding lead at 43% in 2010 Vice-Presidentiable Poll

the long wait is over – at last someone has agreed to be gilbert teodoro’s VP runningmate – edu manzano. manzano is more know for being an actor/tv show host and the ex-husband of vilma santos. he used to be vice mayor of makati but his most recent government role is as chair of the Optical Media Board. we see him around town raiding stalls of pirated CDs and computer software.

read in full here: finally someone agrees to be gilbert teodoro’s VP running mate – edu manzano