Archive
3 survey charts that tell VP Binay his 2016 presidential ambition may be over
these charts have been published before and their analysis have been made, posted here : http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/.
but we like to post them again here to give them some focus and highlight their meaning. the meaning? it is bleak for VP Binay. the meaning from these 3 charts is simple : VP Binay’s 2016 presidential ambition may be over.
VP Jejo Binay’s presidentiables survey results :
- there is bad news all over the chart – all his ratings in September versus previous survey in June are down – across the board and dramatic drops, statistically significant, in most cases double digit numbers
- drops like those are very serious – supporters from all segments and locations are dropping binay, hordes of them
- those results are on themselves pretty bad, but that is not worst of it
- much bigger problems are the ones encircled – the ABC and D socio-ecco classes ratings comparing them to march 2014. the drops here are a nightmare.
- among the ABC socio-eco class, more than half, yes more than half fell off from march : to 23% in september from 47%, a whopping 24% points dramatic decline or a 51% shrinkage. imagine, the upper class or thinking class, more than half of them dropped binay. those are worrying numbers!
- next is the D socio-eco class – a drop to 32% from 42% in march or another dramatic decline of -10% points, or 24% of them abandoned Binay.
- take those 2 declines and your conclusion is that the political base of binay has shrunk considerably.
- more bad news – this survey was the first survey conducted while the corruption charges were being made and not only that they were made at just the start of the hearings in the senate. many more corruption charges have been uncovered, talked about and in the headlines since the early days. now think what the survey numbers will be when they conduct the next survey. another double digit decline maybe? and that could be saying it nicely
one of the spins binay’s spokespersons said on these numbers were that his ratings are still the highest among the presidentiables. yes, that is true but that is being selective and shows a clear ignorance on election polls.
yes, binay’s ratings are the highest but they are declining. and the declines are dramatic. in polls like these where several are taken on regular time intervals across a period of time until election time, what is more important is the trend and much less the numbers per se, time sensitive polls like this may show you to be up now but over the next survey points, the numbers will change and if your numbers are on a declining trend, then you have a problem because by the time you reach election time, you might no longer have the numbers to win the election.
the scariest question that binay needs to answer is this – is the latest surveys the beginning of a declining trend for binay?
there are 6 quarters to go until election time and therefore 6 more polling data. his ratings may be 31% now and the highest among the presidentiables, if it is on a declining trend, that will not remain as 31% after 6 quarters. all it takes is that his ratings drop by an average of 5% points per quarter and by election time, all that he will have will be 1%. having a 1% rating by election time will NOT make you win the election.
the first chart shown here is just about binay himself. but an election is not just about one person. an election is one where there are opposing candidates. among his opposing candidates, mar roxas, an aquino ally is considered a good if not strong contender and opponent of binay, the above are mar roxas’ charts and it should scare the hell out of binay.
- preference for roxas as president are all dramatically up – across the board in all areas and all socio-eco classes.
- not only are the increases statistically significant, many of them are like double to triple the numbers in september versus june and march.
- the dramatic increases are also shown in the rankings of the presidentiables – mar roxas jumped from 5th place in june to now 2nd place in september
- that means roxas is gaining at the expense of binay – binay’s supporters are choosing roxas
- add to that the fact that the campaign period has not begun and roxas is essentially just staying in the sidelines. sure, roxas is often seen all over the country doing his job as DILG but he is not openly campaigning.
- in other words, roxas is gaining supporters for doing nothing, just on the blunders that binay is committing one after the other. roxas stands to gain much more once the campaign period starts as he can now actively get supporters to his camp. when roxas starts doing that, binay’s supporter base may shrink even more.
caveat : with the election stll 6 quarters away, these numbers will of course change. and importantly anything can happen from now till the 2016 election – the candidates themselves may change, their strategies and national events may occur that will change the minds of voters. but what we are saying here is that if everything else is equal and binay does not change his strategies and tactics – he can kiss his presidential ambitions good bye.
the numbers do not lie, they are all there. binay would have wished he had not lied himself…
should kris aquino make good her promise to leave the country now that noynoy will be president?
yes, kris aquino did say she will leave the country should her brother noynoy aquino win the presidential election. she made this promise when a controversy with another actress, ruffa gutierrez erupted on her tv show “The Buzz”.
video where kris said she will leave the country if noynoy is elected:
that controversy started when on camera and live tv, kris ribbed ruffa about leaving abs-cbn for another tv station. we do not think kris meant to hurt ruffa, it was a joke lined with sarcasm in a nice way.
but the whole thing exploded into atomic proportions when ruffa’s mother, anabelle rama forced herself into the picture saying the things she usually say on matters like this and as always making thing even worse than it started. actually, we think anything that involves the gutierrez family, specially with rama should not be taken seriously by the country.
but this is one is upon us now, noynoy is set to be president of the country and we need to look back at what kris said.
kris should not leave the country – her statement was made more as flighty statement without any serious intent in it. these are the things we hear from kris every 17 minutes. kris has her job in the country ans she is one of the more bankable tv personalities that we have. it’s okay for kris to stay here.
kris should leave the country – noynoy won the presidency on the basis of honesty and integrity. with that, kris should make good her promise and leave the country to set an example to the whole nation and to be in keeping with the ideals by which her brother was elected president.
tell us what you think post your comments and vote.
also vote in this poll: is kris, president noynoy’s sister a liability or an asset?
read other posts:
- is kris aquino a liability or an asset to the noynoy aquino campaign? <— look at the poll results here
- gary olivar, malacanang spokesperson 5 thumbs down on kris aquino’s tears, will hurt teodoro
- the kris aquino drama – to leave The Buzz TV show?
- should noynoy aquino be happy or sad that he has kris aquino as a sister?
- for the sake of the philippines – ban annabelle rama from tv and the country!
manny villar jumps to 2nd in presidentiables poll who must not win in the 2010 presidential election
choose 2 presidentiables who you think MUST NOT WIN the 2010 election
april 2, 2010; 9am – manny villar jumps to 2nd at 18% as the presidentiable who must NOT win in the 2010 election. estrada retains lead at 24%. close to villar at 3rd is noynoy aquino at 16%. these top 3 are the leading presidentiables in this election.
december 2, 2009 – we are opening a fresh poll of presidentiables you think MUST NOT WIN the 2010 presidential election. only official candidates are included here. you can select 2 presidentiables. you can only vote once.
to vote for the presidentiable you want to win, to vote click here –> New 2010 Presidentiables Poll Opens, includes only the official candidates
to vote for the vice-presidentiable you want to win, to vote click here –> New 2010 Vice-Presidentibles Poll Opens – official candidates only
COMELEC’s precint finder is down, call hotline numbers instead
Those who want to find their precincts may call the information technology (IT) department of the Comelec.
The hotlines are:
-
527-0841
-
527-2773
-
527-2772
-
527-0822
-
526-7769
-
526-7770
read more about this here: COMELEC website is down, precinct finder overwhelmed by hits, telephone numbers given
complete list of 2010 presidentiables platforms of government – read here
read the platforms of government of the presidentiables here: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/platform-of-government/
or read here: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/presidentiables-stand-on-issues/
or read specifics here:
- erap estrada – the president who will finish plans for the poor
- jamby madrigal – corruption fighter
- presidentiables stand on how they will generate jobs
- eddie villanueva – a vote for what is right and good governance
- richard gordon the transformer
- richard gordon’s new platform of government for the win in the 2010 election!
- presidentiables stand on improving philippine education
- presidentiables stand on cha-cha and arroyo as speaker
- on nuclear energy : aquino, de los reyes, madrigal & perlas no to nukes; gordon, teodoro, villanueva and villar yes to nukes
- nicanor perlas’s platform of government
- richard gordon’s vision for a new philippines
- presidentiables stand on population growth
- eddie villanueva’s platform of government
- A SOCIAL CONTRACT WITH THE FILIPINO PEOPLE : THE PLATFORM OF SENATOR BENIGNO “NOYNOY” S. AQUINO III
the winning formula for gilbert teodoro
we think teodoro suffering in the polls is the result of arroyo’s kiss of death on teodoro. the kiss stuck on teodoro and so did his ratings in the polls. with just a few days to go till election, it is all lost for teodoro.
the latest SWS poll on the performance rating of gloria macapagal arroyo is not helping teodoro at all. arroyo reached a new all time low in performance rating.
with arroyo on his side as his supporter, who needs to have opponents? read more about it here: gloria macapagal arroyo is gilbert teodoro’s deadliest opponent
what manny pangilinan and manny villar have in common and it’s not just the nickname
at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog, a post on manny villar has been getting a lot of attention. the topic is the possibility of the manny villar campaign plagiarising a tv ad from argentina. it’s quite a coincidence.
click to read: did the manny villar campaign plagiarize a Cannes Lions award winning argentina tv ad?
——
this one posted at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog (click to view: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/)
the post we have on this blog on the possibility of the manny villar campaign plagiarizing the tv ad of an award winning argentina tv ad is getting a lot of read. (click to read here: did the manny villar campaign plagiarize a Cannes Lions award winning argentina tv ad?)
it’s quite a coincidence that our other blog, WAWAM! after hours (click to view here: https://wawam.wordpress.com/) a very similar topic is also getting a lot of read.
there are two common denominators: (1) it involves two people with the same nickname, “manny” – manny villar in this blog and manny pangilinan in the other blog.; and (2) it
manny villar
involves plagiarism.
many pangilinan in the other blog delivered at the the ateneo de manila university during it’s graduation commencement exercise for 2010 graduates a speech that was found out to have major parts of it plagiarized from other graduation speeches delivered by barack obama, oprah winfrey, conan o’brian and j. k. rowling.
manny pangilianan
manny, as in manny pangilinan, was outed at a facebook account for ateneans (Overheard At The Ateneo) where side by side comparison was made that showed what parts were plagiarized. in many instances the plagiarism was severe with the exact words copied.
pangilinan has offered to resign from his post at the ateneo because of the incident. but fr. nebres, president of the ateneo wants to think about it first.
is this a coincidence or what? manny and manny on the same plagiarism sin.
—-
click to read : transcript of manny pangilinan’s speech at ateneo graduation rites and the plagiarized parts and links to original speeches
click to read all posts on the topic here: https://wawam.wordpress.com/category/manny-pangilinan/
who is afraid of presidential election polls and surveys?
2010 election poll and surveys is the thing now these days. it’s the stuff of newspaper headlines and tv newscasts. we don’t know if it is the thing in the minds of voters but it is for sure in media.
there is a marketing and research term used in analyzing research results – polarizing. and that ironically is also a good word to describe how people react to poll results. it is polarizing – some people like it and some people don’t.
for sure even the candidates feel the same way, candidates who suffer in the polls don’t like them while those leading in the polls talk about them and thank the people. those who suffer in them hurl stones on the research agencies who do them.
we like presidentiable polls. we are a firm believer in research, consumer research in particular. throughout our marketing and advertising work, we have seen the magic of consumer research where the discovery of an insight has propelled brands into marketing and advertising success. we think it is the same in political polls like the ones SWS and Pulse Asia do for the presidentiables.
read about it presidentiables polls here. read the results and analysis of what the numbers mean, click –> surveys & polls
reason why gilbert teodoro will lose this election
we think gilbert teodoro, the standard bearer of the admin and ruling party is set to lose this election. his campaign was doomed from the very beginning when he decided to to bolt NPC and join gloria macapagal arroyo’s political party. his campaign never really took off encountering problems from the start.
read here: why gilbert teodoro will lose the election
presidentiables stand on issues – read here
read the presidentiables stand on national issues. click here : presidentiables stand on issues
should noynoy aquino be happy or sad that he has kris aquino as a sister?
there was some big drama at The Buzz last sunday when kris aquino shed monster tears in live tv talking about the tears of being the sister of noynoy aquino the presidentiable.
click here to view all the videos, we have also set up a poll, above in this link. find out the latest result and cast your own vote –> http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/kris-aquino/
2010 presidentiables platform of government – read here
read the platforms of government of athe 2010 presidentiables here, click -> platform of government
- presidentiables stand on cha-cha and arroyo as speaker
- on nuclear energy : aquino, de los reyes, madrigal & perlas no to nukes; gordon, teodoro, villanueva and villar yes to nukes
- nicanor perlas’s platform of government
- richard gordon’s vision for a new philippines
- presidentiables stand on population growth
- eddie villanueva’s platform of government
- manny villar’s “all out war on poverty” platform
- A SOCIAL CONTRACT WITH THE FILIPINO PEOPLE : THE PLATFORM OF SENATOR BENIGNO “NOYNOY” S. AQUINO III
noynoy aquino will lose election due to advertising campaign blunders
getting a presidentiable to win an election is really no different from getting a mass consumer product to succeed in the market place. the success of a presidentiable is measured by the number of votes he/she gets, mass consumer products are measured by market share. how to get there, political campaigns and brand management teams for mass consumer products use the same principles, apply the same strategies, in many cases execute the same tools and analyze very similar data and research.
the election just like mass consumer marketing is all about two major components – the product and it’s advertising. in the case of political campaigns, the product is the presidentiable while it may be a shampoo or laundry product for a mass consumer product.
advertising is probably the most potent marketing tool for both. we have seen great tv ads for mass consumer products that were able to push the brands to market leadership. same way we have seen great tv ads launched by the presidentiables that pushed them to being at the top of the polls. this is clearly seen in the manny villar campaign where it is very clear that great advertising done since many months ago has pushed his poll ratings from nothing to now a statistical tie with the dominant front runner, noynoy aquino.
market research, specifically consumer research is very important to both political campaigns and mass consumer marketing. mass consumer marketing and political campaigns both seek to persuade the target market, voters for presidentiables and consumers for marketers to buy their “products”. understanding the consumers minds, attitudes and sentiments is most key for both.
polls that SWS and Pulse Asia conduct are very similar to what mass consumer marketers use – they also have market share data, the equivalent of polls. polls is very much like the product tracking research done by mass consumer products.
the aquino campaign we think have committed major blunders in its advertising campaign. they are so major that we think it will cost noynoy aquino to lose this election. are they reversible? yes, they are reversible but that very much depends on the aquino advertising team knowing what went wrong and more importantly what to do about it. and equally important, do they have the smarts and the energy to something about it.
read the rest here: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2010/02/16/advsertising-blunders-the-aquino-campaign-made-that-will-cost-the-election/
poll that readers will not vote, do not want to win the 2010 election – closed
we are closing this poll for now and will re-open on december 1 when the official list of presidentiables are available.
name 3 presidentiables who MUST NOT WIN the 2010 presidential election
we have either made up our minds or we are in the process of deciding which presidentiable we will vote in the 2010 elections.
on the other side of our brain, though, is a list of presidentiables who we know we will not vote, no matter what happens. in fact we have a list of presidentiables that we are convinced MUST NOT WIN the 2010 election. these are presidentiables that give us nightmares every time we think of the possibility they will win in the 2010 election. some describe the feeling that if a certain presidentiable wins, it will be time to move to a foreign country to migrate.
let us know who these presidentiables are who you think MUST NOT WIN THE 2010 ELECTION. you are allowed to vote 3 presidentiables. the program will not allow you to cast your votes more than once.
please make a comment – let us know the reason behind your vote.
select 3 presidentiables
you WILL NOT vote and MUST NOT WIN
the presidential election:
vote in Presidentiable Poll here: aquino moves up in 2010 Presidentiables Poll
vote in the Vice-Presidentiable Poll here: mar roxas takes commanding lead at 43% in 2010 Vice-Presidentiable Poll
november 7, 2009; 9pm
estrada continue to be the top presidentiable who will not be voted and respondents do not want to win the 2010 election in this poll, at 
23%. aquino is gaining at 2nd with a close 21%. velarde jumped to 3rd at 16% behind a recent surge.
november 3, 2009, 10pm
erap estrada leads all presidentiables readers will not vote and do not win the 2010 election with 25%. noynoy aquino follows at 2nd with 20%. mike velarde is 3rd at 13%, then jamby madrigal at 4th with 12%.
view videos of all presidentiables during GMA7’s Isang Tanong Presidential Forum
view all the videos of the presidentiables here. http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/gma7-isang-tanong/
watch out for presidentiable tv ads during pacquiao-cotto fight
aside from the actual fight, the things to watch out for in tomorrow’s fight are the tv ads of the presidentiables and other political candidates. for sure the politicians will be airing their ads heavily if not air new tv ads. i would be very surprised if the presidentiables do not launch new tv ads during the fight.
the pacquiao-cotto fight is probably the closest the country comes to The Super Bowl in the US where practically all homes in the US tune in on the Super Bowl with many having parties and the US ad industry going crazy in airing their best and brightest. the Super Bowl brings in the audience, the ratings are always sky-high which allows the Super Bowl to price their tv spot at an amazing $3 Million per 30 second spot.
(read more on Super Bowl Ads here: http://the-wawam-file.blogspot.com/search/label/super%20bowl).
at that extremely high cost, the US ad industry kills itself in coming up with their best ads. ads aired in the Super Bowl has become an event in itself where the audience have come to expect and anticipate great ads. talks the day after at water coolers among the audience are not only on the game itself but also the ads they saw in the super bowl.
(view ads aired in the Super Bowl here: http://the-wawam-file.blogspot.com/search/label/super%20bowl%20ads)
careers and marketing success are made at the super bowl for ad people and ad agencies. apple was one and coca cola is another.
it will not be exactly what will happen in the pacquiao-cotto fight but we can expect presidentiables to air new ads tomorrow. the fight will most likely get the highest rating this year and the history of advertising in the country. while 30 second ad costs are expected to be extremely high, we think, just like at the super bowl, it is very much worth it.
gilbert teodoro did it during the pacquiao-hatton fight where he aired his disaster preparedness tv ad and introduced himself for the first time to the voters. (read here: gilbert who? introduces himself in tv ad) teodoro’s ad was aired in every commercial break in that fight.
let us just hope that the quality of the ads the politicians will air tomorrow will be as good as the ones aired in the super bowl.
here is a thought:
loren legarda said she will announce her plans for 2010 on november 15. hmm…… we wonder if legarda will do it via a new tv ad to be aired tomorrow during the fight?
(read here: drama queen senator loren legarda to announce 2010 plans within the week! oh, oh – here we go again!)
“goose bumps” moment – viewer reactions to noynoy aquino’s new tv ad “hindi ka nag-iisa”
“goose bumps” moment – that is the best way to describe viewer reactions to new tv ad of noynoy aquino.
read more comments here:
- noynoy aquino’s “hindi ka nag-iisa” tv spot – historic ad for a historic presidentiable?
- viewer reactions to noynoy aquino’s new tv ad “hindi ka nag-iisa” – goose bumps moment
noynoy aquino’s “hindi ka nag-iisa” tv ad – it works because it speaks of most of us
the lyrics of the song says it all:
Nang bawa’t mamamayan
pagmamahal natin sa bayan
‘wag na nating itago, ‘di tayo susukothe ad shows a long list of celebrities who have not been previously seen coming together for any cause. more importantly, these are celebrities who we did not expect and certainly did not even imagine would come out to appear for a tv ad for the election of a president.
seeing them and all of them in one ad struck a chord in our hearts as many of us felt the same way – for the first time we are coming out of our shell to support a presidential candidate.
read in full here: noynoy aquino’s “hindi ka nag-iisa” tv spot – historic ad for a historic presidentiable?
manny villar’s secret marketing strategy : willie revillame
when this first started, pundits floated the idea that it will be villar-revillame tandem in the 2010 elections. revillame was holding concerts sponsored by villar in a few cities. through all that, revillame and villar were saying no such thing, it is just they are “friends” and would just like to do things together.
in the last few days, talk has surfaced that it might me manny villar and drama queen loren legarda. and just in the last two days, villar has said he already has a VP running mate and will announce it soon.
nobody knows who this partner is, it could very well be willie revillame or drama queen loren legarda.
whatever it is that villar has decided on, we think partnering with revillame is a very good marketing strategy for villar. revillame is one of the more popular tv hosts in the country (the others being kris aquino and vic sotto). his wowowee tv show for real or imagined has strong appeal among the masses. the tv show has a live audience from the masses and they participate in easy to win contests with many from the live and tv audience mistakenly think the money revillame gives away during the show comes from him. of course the money he gives away in the show are not his, they come from the sponsors but for some reason people think it comes from him.
read in full here: http://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2009/10/26/the-marketing-strategy-called-manny-villar-and-willie-revillame/
where in the world…
1mprayers
2thousand10
alexangelph
antenna1
dandansoy
doorkn0b
gloriavioleta
wawam
xyz123
WAWAM! after hours 
Most Recent Readers Comments